Thursday, November 27, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $10,992.5/mt overnight, touched a high of $11,009.5/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of $10,912/mt, and finally closed at $10,953/mt, up 1.11%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 327,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2601 contract opened at 87,200 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 87,300 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of 86,820 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 87,090 yuan/mt, up 0.46%, with trading volume at 54,000 lots and open interest at 206,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On November 25, Highland Copper announced the sale of its 34% stake in the White Pine North Project to its joint venture partner Kinterra Copper USA for approximately $30 million, with about $18.3 million paid in cash. The sale aims to help Highland Copper fully advance the engineering design and financing of its flagship Copperwood Project in Michigan.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On November 26, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 170 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 80 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 86,510-86,800 yuan/mt. Overnight, SHFE copper rose above 87,000 yuan/mt, then gave up gains to around 86,300 yuan/mt. In early morning trading, SHFE copper rose to 86,500 yuan/mt, briefly touched 86,640 yuan/mt, then fell, and rose near the morning close to finish at 86,670 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract narrowed to around 800 yuan/mt, and the inter-month spread was C60-C30 yuan/mt. Today, copper prices are expected to move higher to around 86,500 yuan/mt, but downstream buyers are likely to drive down prices, and spot premiums against SHFE copper are not expected to rise significantly.
(2) Guangdong: On November 26, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 80-160 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 120 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 10 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 86,705 yuan/mt, up 205 yuan/mt from the previous day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 86,595 yuan/mt, up 205 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, although copper prices rose, suppliers were unwilling to lower prices, and overall trading was weaker than the previous day.
(3) Imported copper: On November 26, warrant prices were $26-38/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous day; B/L prices were $42-54/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$6/mt to $8/mt, QP December, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November and early December.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 26, the futures closing price was 86,670 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 80 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained flat MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,400-78,600 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,239 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,665 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, transactions in the secondary copper rod market remained mediocre. Many secondary copper rod enterprises reported insufficient procurement sentiment from downstream buyers, with just-in-time procurement being the main approach. Secondary copper rod enterprises are also considering whether to adjust their production pace to adapt to the low-demand market conditions.
(5) Inventories: On November 25, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 75 mt to 156,575 mt. On November 26, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 1,140 mt to 39,825 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, the US released initial jobless claims data, indicating some easing in the labor market. Additionally, the US Fed's Beige Book showed recent US economic activity as generally modest, with increased polarization in consumption. Market expectations for further interest rate cuts strengthened, supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply of high-quality copper remained tight, while supply of standard-quality copper was relatively ample. Demand side, as month-end approached, downstream procurement sentiment showed some recovery. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain supported today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should exercise caution in their decision-making and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
